Experiment / social_walking_trial_1
Social Walking Groups — Trial 1
Do small, self-organized walking groups increase weekly active minutes while preserving autonomy and enjoyment?
Illustrative data: This seeded experiment demonstrates the Fresco process. It did not happen, and its numbers are not evidence.
Goal
~80 minutes / week → 150 minutes / week, measured as weekly active minutes per participant.
Hypothesis
Small social walking groups increase sustained physical activity more effectively than isolated exercise prompts.
Proposed idea: Small social walking groups
Intervention
Participants join a group of three to five people, choose their own route and schedule, and receive one coordination prompt per week.
Metrics
Primary: Weekly active minutes per participant
- Experiment retention
- Self-reported enjoyment
- Estimated cost per participant
Guardrails
- Stress must not increase
- No pressure to disclose routes
- Withdrawal remains one click away
- No public individual activity data
Participation
Adults able to choose a safe, personally appropriate form of walking or equivalent adapted movement.
Baseline: 82 self-reported active minutes per week
Privacy & data
Collected
Weekly aggregate active minutes, one enjoyment rating, and participation status.
Boundary
Only aggregate demo measurements are public. No routes, health records, or individual activity totals are published.
Results
Illustrative participants reported substantially more weekly movement, with strong retention and higher enjoyment. The design still needs a real baseline protocol and comparison condition.
Weekly activity
+79% from the illustrative baseline
Retention
19 of 24 illustrative starters
Enjoyment
Self-reported
Estimated cost
Per participant
Observed positives
- More reported movement
- Low estimated cost
- Most participants stayed through day 30
Negative effects
- Three groups reported scheduling friction
- Two participants disliked coordination prompts
Limitations
- Seeded demo data; no real trial occurred
- Self-report bias
- No comparison group
- Small and self-selected cohort
Confidence: Very low confidence. These synthetic measurements teach the result format and must never be cited as evidence.
Decision
Repeat with a clearer baseline, accessible movement alternatives, lower-friction scheduling, and a comparison condition before considering scale.
Discussion
Questions and criticism
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